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Greenspan
Warns Than Housing Prices Will Simmer Down
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Thu,
1 Sep 2005 11:36:49 EST
The man who (all
too correctly) warned of "irrational exuberance" in
the stock market six years ago is evidencing increasing nervousness
about the housing market.
In his strongest
statement to date, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
told an audience in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week that it
was inevitable that housing prices will "simmer
down." As part of that process, the Chairman said, home
sales will slow and price increases will moderate or might possibly
even decline. This, he said, would put a damper on "home
equity extraction" (we assume this means cash out refinancing)
which will impact the larger economy by slowing personal consumption
which has been fueled by that "extraction."
Chairman Greenspan made his remarks at the closing session of
a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
on August 27.
Greenspan has
spoken often over the last few months about what he has refused
to call a national bubble but has frequently referred to as "froth" in
regional markets. He has also warned about new mortgage products
such as interest only and hybrid adjustable rate loans on the
basis that homeowners could find themselves unable to pay their
mortgages should rates rise suddenly and/or dramatically. He
has also denied that the multiple rate increases that the Federal
Reserve has put in place were designed to cool the housing
boom.
In his closing
remarks to the conference, probably his last appearance before
the group as his 2006 retirement approaches, the Chairman further
stated that "the surprisingly
high correlation between increases in home equity extraction
and the current account deficit suggests that an end to the
housing boom could induce a significant rise in the personal
savings rate, a decline in imports, and a corresponding improvement
in the current account deficit."
While we report
his remarks, it seems only fair to remind you that Chairman
Greenspan once famously stated, and we may be paraphrasing
but only slightly, that "if
I have made myself clear, I have obviously misspoken."
We bow to his wisdom and self deprecation.
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